The following stories illustrate four potential scenarios about how we will experience mobility by 2040. Of course, none of them will materialize exactly in this way. However, altogether they draw a picture and exhibit significant artefacts people will recognize then. They provide the foundation to imagine, dream and mentally travel to the future. This helps to ideate, prototype and test solutions for tomorrow and build empathy for the people moving around in a world that is hard to imagine today.
The first brain-computer interfaces hit the market in 2037. They allowed direct, bi-directional communication between human brains and external devices, and even restored some sensory perception to those who lacked it due to physical disabilities. Implanted chips extended the brain’s capacity and connected it to the internet. Soft wearable exosuits appeared that enhanced physical abilities such as walking, jumping and gripping, while extending the tactile perception of reality. Alongside advancements in data transmission, these advances made teleoperation viable – so repair technicians or surgeons could do their highly specialized work remotely. Humans were on their way to becoming cyborgs, permanently connected to devices that enhanced their mental and physical capability.
Societal Trends
- Anywhere, Somewhere, X-Where
- Real and Virtual
- Mind-Lifting and Post-Humanism
- Health as a Status Symbol
- Hyper-Personalization
- Personal Cloud
Technological Trends
- Decentralization
- Digitally Enhanced Realities
- Digital Replication and Simulation
- Human Enhancement
Economic Trends
- Public and Private Convergence
- Data Infrastructure and Governance
- Integrated Systems
Environmental Trends
- Global Warming
- Rising Sea Levels
- Pollution
- Extreme Weather Events
Political Trends
- E-Governance
- Big Tech in Politics
- Predictive Governance
- Securitization
In 2028, northern Portugal was swept by raging wildfires whipped up by savage winds. The resulting damage to crops and rural supply chains created a long-lasting and catastrophic food shortage in the capital, Lisbon. The government, unprepared for the disaster, was slow to respond, provoking widespread civil unrest. These events highlighted the fragility of Europe’s infrastructure, and its vulnerability to climate change. European entrepreneurs decided to look for a better solution. Increasingly, they opted to move out from the cities to rural areas, where they founded communities that leveraged automation and decentralized technology to become self-sufficient. Over the decades that followed, this movement gradually went mainstream, replacing the centralized infrastructure of the past.
Societal Trends
- Community Culture
- New Work
- Slow Culture
- Sustainable Behavior
Technological Trends
- Autonomous Transportation
- Decentralization
- Power Sources and Energy Storage
Economic Trends
- Meaningful Consumption
- Localization
- Sharing Economy
- Monetary Substitution
Environmental Trends
- Environmental Regulations
- Extreme Weather Events
Political Trends
- Decentralization of Politics
- Digital Warfare
- Green Wave
- Separatism
Over the past 20 years, an ever-expanding area of Venice has spent an increasing number of days per year submerged beneath the waves. Eventually, the local government had to implement drastic measures, with the help of the UN. For decades, the effects of climate change were predicted accurately and in detail by scientists, but played down by politicians and the private sector. The result of this inaction has so far been reflected most visibly in increased flooding and extreme weather catastrophes around the globe. While robust measures are now in place across Europe, it is unclear whether these will be sufficient. Lifestyles have changed for everyone.
Societal Trends
- Anywhere, Somewhere, X-Where
- New Work
- Digital Reputation
Technological Trends
- Autonomous Robotics
- Digitally Enhanced Realities
- Digital Replication and Simulation
Economic Trends
- Emergence of Hidden Platforms
- Integrated Systems
- Post-Scarcity Economy
Environmental Trends
- Global Warming
- Rising Sea Levels
- Land-Use Change
- Environmental Regulations
Political Trends
- Migration
- Securitization
The year is 2042. As a result of the “Green Wave” of the 2020s and the rise of the Green Party in Switzerland, private transport is now taxed at such a level that it has become the preserve of the rich, or those who need it for professional purposes, who receive subsidies. Advances in technology have allowed the creation of a modular but seamlessly integrated transportation system. Thanks to a national digital currency, along with the involvement of the old Swiss Federal Railway (SBB) in the nationwide transport network, traditional Swiss reliability has extended to every part of life. However, the idea of punctuality has largely become a thing of the past, replaced by an effortless flow from A to B, available to everyone, on demand.
Societal Trends
- Simplification
- Slow Culture
- Sustainable Behavior
- Technology Fear
- Hyper-Personalization
- Personal Cloud
Technological Trends
- Artificial Intelligence
- Autonomous Transportation
- New Means of Mass Transportation
- Decentralization
Economic Trends
- Sharing Economy
- Cities and Rural Areas
- Monetary Substitution
Environmental Trends
- Environmental Regulations
Political Trends
- Predictive Governance
- Green Wave
- Separatism
- Securitization
«New opportunities for insurance companies in the mobility space are there – we only have to find them.»
Nowadays, 20-40% of the premium of a P&C insurer is typically based on classical motor insurance products. But different mega trends will have a huge impact on the motor insurance industry worldwide. Autonomous and connected cars are not only a vision, we see them on the roads already. Electrification of mobility booms, driven also by the sustainability challenges humankind is facing. A growing sharing economy is emerging out of different economic and social trends, as we see before. We may be best in class in what we are doing today, but the world is changing faster and faster. We at Baloise call this scenario for the future of mobility “The Three Zeros: Zero emission, zero ownership and zero accident”. This will fundamentally change the industry and its solutions for customers and partners.
The entire mobility market is undergoing major changes. Big players - strong brands - in the field of mobility are struggling with their existing business models. The OEMs, for example, are under attack from pioneers like Tesla and the shift away from combustion engines. UBER has changed the taxi business and European newcomer Flixbus redefines the way we travel. China is in many areas such as zero-emmission public transportation on the forefront of the development and usage of new technologies. Such trends and offerings might also enter European markets in the foreseeable future.
These changes in the field of mobility will open up new service and risk coverage needs. The future of mobility requires new solutions and business models and the insurance industry is in a strong position to offer those across not only traditional risk coverage solutions but also new mobility-focused service offerings.
We are convinced that Baloise has the capabilities to be a relevant future player in the new mobility ecosystems. However, focus and an intelligent use of our resources will be key. For this purpose, we want to understand the most likely scenarios of what the future might look like. Questions to be answered focus on the impact of different trends, the likelihood that they will materialize, and the possible picture of our mobility experience in Europe in 2030 and beyond. Because of this, Baloise developed the before mentioned scenarios and a map of trends which will help us to find the best way in these turbulent times. New opportunities for insurance companies in the mobility space are there – we only have to find them.
A look into the future: This study, carried out in collaboration between Spark Labs and Baloise Insurance, aims to provide a glimpse of mobility in 20 years’ time.